Dude, Where’s My Recession?

By Admin | May 1, 2008

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The economy isn’t contracting like the media seems to hope. Gross domestic product increased during the first quarter at a rate of 0.6 percent. Anemic? Yes. Recession? No. Remember that a recession is defined as back to back quarters of negative GDP growth. So far that hasn’t happened, so the earliest we could know for sure that we’re actually in a recession would be in November, just as we enter the Christmas season and just after we’ve elected a new President.

Could it be that the media and all the pundits have a political reason for pushing recession on us? Nah, that never happens…

Before a recession is declared, shouldn’t the economy actually, I dunno, recess for a bit–at least for a quarter?

One thing I found interesting in today’s news was that exports have rebounded quite strongly. That’s a direct effect of a weak dollar. People seem to forget that a weak dollar makes American products more attractive overseas.

There is always more than one side to every story. I’m going to spend the next few days pondering who benefits from a recession. Maybe that’s who keeps screaming it from the rooftops.

Always follow the money. Remember also that $200 billion is getting mailed out in about 2 weeks. That should spur some spending.

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5 Comments so far

FFB (10 comments.) May 2, 2008

Interesting how the media wants to spin the economy in a bad light rather than a positive one. Is it that good news doesn’t sell? Recessions happen, not that we’re in one, and then we come out of them. By the time we actually discover we’ve been in a recession, if we were in one, we would probably already be recovering from it.

Ron 's reply:
May 2nd, 2008
#FFB→
What’s funny is to hear the pundits say, “Yes, but…gas prices are too high…yes, but food prices have skyrocketed…yes, but housing is hurting…yes, but we’re in the sub-prime mess and the banks are putting the squeeze on borrowers.”

Paul Harvey even said we’re in a recession because 9 out of 10 CFO’s said we were. I guess we NOW get to vote on whether we’re in one.
Joe @ SimpleDebtFreeFinance (4 comments.) May 5, 2008

I couldn’t agree more with the comments and the spirit of this post!

In fact, I’ve been ranting about it (maybe a bit too much) myself of late, I dunno… but the knee jerk reaction and lack of critical thinking involved in so much “analysis” of the current state of the economy drives me crazy.

Yeah, gas prices are ridiculous, and the cost of living in general is rising but: A) It’s not an excessive amount in historical terms, B) It makes the current economic climate painful, but not a recession.
FFB (10 comments.) May 7, 2008

Increasing prices is actually a sign of a booming economy. I don’t think recession is the problem – the problem is an economic oil shock and poor housing loan management.

Ron 's reply:
May 7th, 2008
#FFB→

That’s a great point on increasing prices!
Like I’ve said in some other posts (and on some other blogs): the problem isn’t the high cost of living, it’s the cost of living high. We’re so used to driving Hummers, pulling $50,000 boats, and eating at Ruth’s Chris that when we have to drive an Escape Hybrid, pulling an aluminum jon boat with a 20 hp motor and eat at the Western Sizzlin’ we think we’re in a recession.